Men's Bracketology: 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 10/28/2025 at 9:00 a.m. ET

The 2025-26 campaign will finally tip off Nov. 3, which means what follows is the last preseason edition of Bracketology before weekly updates begin Nov. 11. Happy hoops!

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

How often does the best version of a team actually win a championship? In college basketball, were the 2003 champions the best team of Jim Boeheim's career? Of UConn's six titlists and multiple additional contenders, where would Kevin Ollie's 2014 champions rank? You get the idea. Champions need to be good and timely. Since the pandemic, one could reasonably place Purdue as the nation's second-best program, after UConn. That includes the Boilermakers falling well short of UConn in the 2024 title game as well as their head-scratching NCAA tournament exits at the hands of North Texas, Saint Peter's and Fairleigh Dickinson -- all of which is to note the 2025-26 version of Purdue might not be Matt Painter's best team of this era, but it could be the timeliest. And sometimes, that's all it takes.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

Oklahoma City

Portland

Tampa

Buffalo

WEST (SAN JOSE)

Greenville

Buffalo

Portland

Greenville

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

St. Louis

1aq - Purdue
16aq - Norfolk St.
aq - Long Island University/
8 Baylor
9 Ole Miss

San Diego

St. Louis

Philadelphia

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Tampa

Oklahoma City

San Diego

Philadelphia

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

11

11

8

5

5

2

2

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

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